The Biggest Labor Shift in Human History

The Future of Labor & Work

We’re living through the most dramatic labor shift in human history.

Not just in how we work.

But what we work on.

Where labor is focused.

And which skills we’ll need to succeed.

I’ve spent years building businesses where labor trends weren’t just an influence—they were existential.

With Saucey, we saw worker classification changes (mostly lobbied by unions to reclassify workers so they could fight to unionize gig labor) completely reshape the economics of marketplace businesses. We watched minimum wage nearly double in under a decade, squeezing retail margins to the brink. We’ve leveraged offshore talent across operations, customer support, and growth.

And I’ve seen firsthand how predatory labor litigation can cripple entire industries—like the current shutdown of nearly all film production in Los Angeles, driven by two law firms exploiting a loophole and suing productions en masse.

That’s why I believe:

If you’re building, investing in, or joining a company today, you must understand labor trends—because they’re evolving faster and more dramatically than ever.

Put another way — over the past 100 years, labor has been the largest operating expense in most businesses. Within the next 10 years, that will change. 

My Prediction: 

Fiercely competitive companies will emerge with radically lean labor models. They’ll scale faster, price more aggressively, and outmaneuver slower, labor-heavy incumbents. 

Legacy enterprises, weighed down by union pressures and rigid policy frameworks, will struggle to adapt, frozen in outdated cost structures while the market moves rapidly onward without them.

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Stats That Say It All

• California’s minimum wage rose from $9/hr in 2015 to $16/hr in 2025. For salaried roles, employers now face a $66,560 minimum—often exceeding $80,000/year when factoring in payroll taxes, benefits, and insurance.
  
• The average employer health insurance premium is now $16,357/year per employee.
  
• Labor lawsuits cost employers an average of $160,000 per case, and EPLI premiums are spiking as a result.
  
• Over 7 million prime-age men are missing from the U.S. workforce. Meanwhile, 600,000+ skilled trade jobs go unfilled.
  
• China’s wages have increased 4x in the past 20 years; India’s service sector is struggling with attrition, inflation, and quality erosion.
  
• AI could impact 300 million jobs globally, automating up to 25% of U.S. job tasks (Goldman Sachs).
  
  

The Short Version?

• In the past 50 years, we offshored manufacturing to Asia.
  
• In the last 20, we offshored services to India and the Philippines.
  
• In just the last 5, COVID triggered geo-diversification—pushing companies to Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia.
  

Now, we’re watching those offshored service jobs—invoice processing, customer support, market research—get replaced by AI.

And we’re watching manufacturing decentralize at record speed.

Meanwhile, in the U.S.:

• Unionization is surging
  
• Domestic labor costs are now 40–60% above base wages
  
• Skilled trade shortages are hitting plumbing, electrical, nursing, and healthcare hard
  
• Labor litigation is at all-time highs, driven by vague policies and exploitable regulations
  
• And AI is hollowing out middle-tier white-collar roles at scale
  

We’re not just shifting job titles anymore.

We’re re-architecting the entire global workforce.

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The Good News…

Where there’s massive change, there’s massive opportunity.

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5 Huge Emerging Opportunities 

1. AI Automation of Outsourced Service Firms

Trend: Admin services that were offshored can now be automated entirely.

Example: Market research firms, data entry companies, IT service and technical support, accounts receivable/payable, medical transcription, and outsourced finance teams can be replaced with AI.

Business Idea: Choose any admin function that was previously domestic and has been outsourced in a labor arbitrage to other countries. Build AI-powered tools to perform those functions. Target companies that have already outsourced these roles. 

Why it works: Business leaders who have already outsourced services are philosophically and financially aligned with cost reduction and automation. Selling them on further automation, shifting from outsourced teams that cost $5,000/month to AI costing less than $100/month is a low lift sales process.

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2. Offshore Teams for SMBs

Trend: As U.S. labor costs skyrocket, small businesses need easier access to global talent.‍

‍Stat: Lower-level labor costs and insurance have grown 2X over the past 10 years.

‍Business Idea: A platform bundling offshore sales, assistants, finance, marketing and back office into managed teams for SMBs.‍

Why it works: Virtually all non-physical roles (admin, finance, sales support) can be offshored at 70-85% lower cost for small businesses. While enterprise companies already leverage global talent, most SMBs—like dentists, retailers, fitness studios, restaurants, and real estate agents—lack the infrastructure to do the same.

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3. Trade School 2.0: Filling the Undersupplied Trades

Trend: Plumbing, HVAC, electrical and nursing can’t be automated or offshored—and they’re all facing huge labor shortages.‍

Stat: The U.S. needs 600,000+ skilled tradespeople, and trade school enrollment has dropped 30%+ since 2012.‍

Business Idea: Modern bootcamps for licensed trades with financing, placement, and local employer pipelines.‍

Why it works: Wages are high, competition is low, and AI-proof roles offer strong ROI.

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4. Labor Risk Intelligence for Investors & Operators

Trend: Labor volatility is now a critical operational and investment risk—driven by lawsuits, unionization, benefit mandates, and AI disruption. But most companies (and investors) treat it reactively, not strategically.

Business Idea: A data platform that scores companies’ labor exposure across dimensions like:

• Classification risk (W2 vs. 1099)
  
• Unionization potential
  
• Wage mandate sensitivity
  
• Litigation exposure
  
• AI departmental adoption
  

Why It Works: PE firms, VCs, and corporate acquirers need a forward-looking view of labor risk—but currently rely on HR diligence or historical market comps. Operators can use it to benchmark risk, plan workforce strategy, and avoid legal or cost landmines.

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5. AI-Driven Trade Recruiting & Staffing Platform

Trend: The U.S. has massive skilled labor shortages in trades, logistics, and manufacturing, but the staffing market is fragmented, old-school, and inefficient.

Business Idea: A tech-first staffing and placement platform for plumbers, electricians, HVAC techs, and welders. Uses AI to match employers with vetted tradespeople based on certifications, availability, job type, and region.

Why It Works:

• Over 600,000 trade roles are unfilled in the U.S., and the average age of workers is nearing retirement.
  
• Blue-collar labor marketplaces are 10–15 years behind white-collar ones like Upwork or Wellfound.
  
• Add layers like certification tracking, insurance, shift-based scheduling, and even workforce financing.

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The Labor Hierarchy is Flipping

We’re used to thinking:

• Doctors, lawyers, and analysts are high-value
• Plumbers, roofers, and welders are replaceable

But what happens when AI can write contracts, perform due diligence, analyze massive data sets, and diagnose illnesses, but no one can fix your water heater?

Manual labor is becoming a scarce, local premium.
White-collar middle jobs are being absorbed by AI.

In the next decade, labor value will be defined by three questions:

1. Can it be automated?
2. Can it be offshored?
3. Can it be easily replaced?

If the answer is no to all three, you’re sitting on a valuable opportunity.

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Final Thought: The Builders' Opportunity

In the re-architecture of the workforce, the winners will be those who:

• Build the tools for this transition
• Create systems that empower displaced workers
• And rewire how labor, capital, and technology interact

The future of labor won’t be about job titles. It will be about leverage, location, and longevity.

Until next week!